Search results for "Influence diagram"

The foundations of decision theory: An intuitive, operational approach with mathematical extensions

1985

A new axiomatic basis for the foundations of decision theory is introduced and its mathematical development outlined. The system combines direct intuitive operational appeal with considerable structural flexibility in the resulting mathematical framework.

Survey of methods to visualize alternatives in multiple criteria decision making problems

2012

When solving decision problems where multiple conflicting criteria are to be considered simultaneously, decision makers must compare several different alternatives and select the most preferred one. The task of comparing multidimensional vectors is very demanding for the decision maker without any support. Different graphical visualization tools can be used to support and help the decision maker in understanding similarities and differences between the alternatives and graphical illustration is a very important part of decision support systems that are used in solving multiple criteria decision making problems. The visualization task is by no means trivial because, on the one hand, the grap…

Decision-aid for discrete multiple criteria decision making problems with imprecise data

1999

Abstract We describe ways of aiding decision making with a discrete set of alternatives. In many decision situations, it is not possible to obtain explicit preference information from the decision makers. Instead, useful decision-aid can be provided to the decision makers by describing what kind of weighting of the criteria result in certain choices of the alternatives. The suggested treatment is based on the basic ideas of the ELECTRE III method. The modelling of the preferences by pseudo-criteria is especially helpful in case the data, that is, the criterion values are imprecise. Unlike ELECTRE III, no ranking of the alternatives is produced. Based on a minimum-procedure in the exploitati…

Statistical inference as a decision problem: the choice of sample size

1997

Consistency of Probability Decision Rules and Its Inference in Probability Decision Table

2012

In most synthesis evaluation systems and decision-making systems, data are represented by objects and attributes of objects with a degree of belief. Formally, these data can be abstracted by the form (objects; attributes; P), wherePrepresents a kind degree of belief between objects and attributes, such that,Pis a basic probability assignment. In the paper, we provide a kind of probability information system to describe these data and then employ rough sets theory to extract probability decision rules. By extension of Dempster-Shafer evidence theory, we can get probabilities of antecedents and conclusion of probability decision rules. Furthermore, we analyze the consistency of probability de…

Accelerated Bayesian learning for decentralized two-armed bandit based decision making with applications to the Goore Game

2012

Published version of an article in the journal: Applied Intelligence. Also available from the publisher at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10489-012-0346-z The two-armed bandit problem is a classical optimization problem where a decision maker sequentially pulls one of two arms attached to a gambling machine, with each pull resulting in a random reward. The reward distributions are unknown, and thus, one must balance between exploiting existing knowledge about the arms, and obtaining new information. Bandit problems are particularly fascinating because a large class of real world problems, including routing, Quality of Service (QoS) control, game playing, and resource allocation, can be solved …